A Conservative former cabinet minister has cast doubt on whether Andrew RT Davies should lead the Tories into the next Senedd election.

Stephen Crabb warned that the 2026 vote would be “tough” for the party, and that it “probably” needed a leadership “refresh”.

“If the party needs to change in order to survive, it’s harder to do that when you always have the same personalities in place,” said Crabb, who was in the cabinet as Welsh secretary and also work and pensions secretary.

Welsh Conservatives have been asked to comment.

Davies is currently on his second stint as leader of the Welsh Conservatives in the Senedd: his first ran from 2012 to 2018, and he returned in 2021.

He has been under pressure in recent months after he was accused of “Islamophobic race-baiting” by a Muslim group, and over inappropriate language from one of his politicians.

Speaking to James Williams on BBC Radio Wales Breakfast, Crabb warned that the Conservatives were not well positioned for the next Senedd election in 2026.

“I think it’s going to be a tough Senedd election. Reform will be looking to build on the gains they’ve made electorally… there was an awful lot of people voting for Reform in July.”

He said the party had not been “good enough at providing alternative policies”.

Asked if Davies was the right leader for the next Senedd election, Crabb said: “I don’t like making it about personalities.”

But he added: “If you’re asking me do I think there needs to be refresh of the Welsh party and the Welsh leadership, probably yes.

“If the party needs to change in order to survive, it’s harder to do that when you always have the same personalities in place.”

He ruled himself out of standing in the 2026 Senedd election: “I spent the last couple of months pursuing other options.

“I think to do that, you’ve got to do it with a single mind and not with one foot stuck in the past.”

The comments come after former Downing Street PR chief Guto Harri said the Conservatives in the Senedd needed “new leadership” and were not just “there to draw a pay cheque”.

Crabb was MP for Preseli Pembrokeshire until the summer general election, when he lost his seat, as did all other Welsh Conservatives.

He had served as chairman of the Commons’ Welsh Affairs Select Committee, and in frontbench roles under David Cameron and Theresa May.

The former MP spoke as his party met in Birmingham for its annual UK party conference, amid a leadership contest to replace former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

Crabb said it had been clear the party was going to suffer a “massive defeat in July” because of a “huge loss of trust in the Conservative government”.

He hoped the next Tory leader would “occupy the centre ground”.

“Culture wars, the war on woke,” he said, “isn’t the thing that’s going to persuade somebody languishing on a hospital waiting list that they’ll see public services improve.”