Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party is set to meet to pick new leaders and set key targets for the young, fast-growing economy.

The congress, held every five years, is where the one-party state’s highest-level decisions are made, from economic and foreign policy direction, to the selection of party leaders, including its most powerful position, general secretary.

To Lam, who currently holds the mantle, is again considered the lead contender for the top job: a role chosen behind closed doors by party officials.

The 68-year-old has been driving ambitious reforms since being named general secretary in August 2024.

Vietnam’s leaders have long sought to emulate the economic success of China, whose rapid growth was also fuelled by exports.

Although Vietnam is the fastest-growing economy in South East Asia, and a major hubs for export-led manufacturing, it still faces huge challenges. Corruption cost the last two presidents their job and Donald Trump’s tariffs are a looming threat.

Like many countries, it has found itself in the American president’s crosshairs. It was initially threatened with levies of 46%, but they now stand at 20% on Vietnamese-made goods.

Despite this, official figures suggest exports to the US were still up 28%, a record high.

Its one-party socialist system, and the policy continuity that it offers, has arguably helped create a honeypot for foreign investment, especially as companies diversify supply chains away from China.

Keeping that going despite the uncertainty of Trump’s tariff policy is going to be a priority for the country’s leaders. The economy has been steadily growing at more than 6% for decades now, but the government has set itself a steep target for 2026: 10%.

Observers say meeting that will be hard, but delivering on economic promises is essential for the legitimacy of the Communist Party.

In the coming days, some 1,600 delegates from the Communist Party will approve policy documents for the next five years and elect a new Central Committee of roughly 200 members.

The Party’s new top leadership is then chosen through a tightly controlled process.

Of the 200 elected Central Committee members, 17 to 19 members of the Politburo – the Communist Party’s top decision-making body – will be chosen, including the general secretary.

All candidates are chosen in advance by the Communist Party with no electoral competition, which is why approvals are typically near-unanimous. The Vietnamese public has no direct role in selecting its national leaders.

The new top leadership will be revealed on the final day of the congress, 25 January, and the general secretary will deliver the closing speech.

To Lam was elected general secretary by the Central Committee on August 3, 2024, replacing his predecessor Nguyen Phu Trong who passed away in July 2024.

He currently heads the Central Committee, the Politburo and the Secretariat, oversees the armed forces as Secretary of the Central Military Commission and chairs the party’s anti-corruption body. Under the Constitution, the General Secretary leads both the Party and the state.

To Lam, an ex-police officer in the secretive public security ministry, has modelled himself as an aspirational reformer, pegging his flag to the promise of sharp economic growth and declaring an “era of national rise” for Vietnam.

He has an ambitious plan to build Vietnam into an upper-income, knowledge-and-tech-based economy by the year 2045.

Since taking office, he has driven policies on administrative reform, national development, and private-sector growth. He has also centralised power and expanded the authority of the police ministry which he once headed.

Yet while many observers consider To Lam’s reinstatement as general secretary to be a foregone conclusion, the formation of Vietnam’s new government may take slightly longer.

In past years the process has taken several months, creating a delay between leadership decisions and the formation of a new government.

This year, the timeline has been shortened. Legislative elections will be held on March 15, and the new National Assembly will meet in April to formally appoint the country’s senior leaders.

Ahead of the 14th Congress, Reuters and Bloomberg news agencies reported that To Lam is seeking to “merge” the two top positions – general secretary and president – into a single role for the next term.

In practice, he already held both positions from May to August 2024, and his predecessor Nguyen Phu Trong also held the two roles from October 2018 to April 2021. But in both cases, it was temporary.