News
  • Login
  • Home
  • News
  • Sport
  • Worklife
  • Travel
  • Reel
  • Future
  • More
Sunday, July 6, 2025
No Result
View All Result

NEWS

3 °c
London
8 ° Wed
9 ° Thu
11 ° Fri
13 ° Sat
  • Home
  • Video
  • World
    • All
    • Africa
    • Asia
    • Australia
    • Europe
    • Latin America
    • Middle East
    • US & Canada

    Charmed, Nip/Tuck and Fantastic Four actor dies aged 56

    Diogo Jota and André Silva’s funeral held in Portugal

    ‘The first free black man I’d ever seen’

    Australian PM vows ‘full force of law’ after arson attack at Melbourne synagogue

    Waters reopens to swimmers after century-long ban

    Trump visits ‘Alligator Alcatraz’ migrant detention centre in Florida Everglades

    Hamas says it delivered ‘positive response’ on Gaza ceasefire plan

    Holiday park wiped out by Texas floods

    Ellie Carpenter: Chelsea sign Australia defender

  • UK
    • All
    • England
    • N. Ireland
    • Politics
    • Scotland
    • Wales

    More than 20 arrested at protest, Metropolitan Police say

    Reform MP James McMurdock gives up whip over business allegations, party says

    First doctors graduate after completing new part-time course

    Cymru'n barod i synnu pawb yn Euro 2025

    Three people robbed in ‘terrifying’ incidents in city

    Palestine Action banned after judge denies temporary block

    Boy’s sentence for killing man, 80, to be reviewed

    Ex-Arsenal footballer Thomas Partey charged with rape

    Final farewell at Celtic Park for Lisbon Lion John Clark

  • Business
    • All
    • Companies
    • Connected World
    • Economy
    • Entrepreneurship
    • Global Trade
    • Technology of Business

    US debt is now $37tn – should we be worried?

    ‘Food demand in Cumbria is unprecedented’

    Your banknote redesign ideas – from British Bulldogs to Basil Fawlty

    What are my rights if my flight is cancelled or delayed?

    UK borrowing costs fall as investors’ nerves ease

    US jobs see strong growth in June with unemployment down to 4.1%

    Citroen owners left stranded over airbag safety risk

    Bank of England to redesign banknotes

    Heathrow considering legal action against National Grid over fire

  • Tech
  • Entertainment & Arts

    Dancers say Lizzo ‘needs to be held accountable’ over harassment claims

    Freddie Mercury: Contents of former home being sold at auction

    Harry Potter and the Cursed Child marks seven years in West End

    Sinéad O’Connor: In her own words

    Tom Jones: Neighbour surprised to find singer in flat below

    BBC presenter: What is the evidence?

    Watch: The latest on BBC presenter story… in under a minute

    Watch: George Alagiah’s extraordinary career

    BBC News presenter pays tribute to ‘much loved’ colleague George Alagiah

    Excited filmgoers: 'Barbie is everything'

  • Science
  • Health
  • In Pictures
  • Reality Check
  • Have your say
  • More
    • Newsbeat
    • Long Reads

NEWS

No Result
View All Result
Home Reality Check

Conservatives fighting defensive election campaign, BBC analysis shows

June 30, 2024
in Reality Check
9 min read
250 3
0
491
SHARES
1.4k
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter


4 days ago

By Oscar Bentley and Lauren Tavriger, BBC Political Research Unit

Getty Images Prime Minister Rishi Sunak meeting veterans at a community breakfast in his constituency in Northallerton, North Yorkshire, while on the General Election campaign trail on 25 May 2024Getty Images

The Conservatives are fighting a highly defensive general election campaign, with Rishi Sunak visiting areas his party has won comfortably in the past, BBC analysis shows.

The prime minister has campaigned in constituencies where the Tories won big in the last election, with notional majorities of more than 20,000.

In recent days, they have included Grantham and Bourne (22,393 or 46% of votes cast) and Torridge and Tavistock (22,899 or 42%).

The Labour and Liberal Democrat leaders have also campaigned in areas where the Conservatives won in 2019 – again often by a sizable margin.

Leaders visit areas for a range of reasons – but campaign visits are a strong indication of where the parties believe they should be focusing their attention.

General Election 2024 banner

The BBC has collated the movements of the three leaders since the start of the year.

The data here focuses on visits in England and Wales that have taken place since the election was called on 22 May, up until 22 June. Our data is based on visits attended by the media and others reported online by various sources. It is not a complete list because leaders may have chosen to attend events privately.

We have used notional results to understand how safe seats are compared with 2019. The constituency map has changed since 2019 – so seats are not directly comparable. Notional results are based on calculating what the results would have been with the new constituency map in 2019.

We have presented the figures for each seat as the majority of the winning party followed by the percentage of the vote this represents.

Map showing the constituencies Rishi Sunak has visited since the election was announced - 38 are Conservative-held and four are labour-held

The clearest pattern identified in our analysis is that all three parties are focusing on Tory-held areas.

The Conservatives won the 2019 election comfortably, so it was always probable that this would be the case.

But some 90% of Mr Sunak’s visits analysed by the BBC since the election was called, were to areas won by the Tories in 2019 – illustrating a highly defensive campaign. This continues a pattern seen since the start of the year.

What will concern some Conservatives is how many traditionally-safe seats Mr Sunak has spent valuable time campaigning in.

They include the likes of Suffolk Coastal (18,355 or 35% of votes cast), South Northamptonshire (23,671 or 42%), Melksham and Devizes (17,028 or 31%) and Swindon North (13,250 or 28%).

This doesn’t mean the Conservatives fear losing them all. But it is significant they have decided to send the prime minister to these places in the run-up to polling day.

Not only does it suggest they feel the need to shore up support, it means Mr Sunak cannot spend as much time in other more marginal areas.

Map showing where Sir Keir Starmer has visited since the election was called - 25 are Conservative-held constituencies, seven are Labour

At the same time, 76% of the visits by Sir Keir Starmer since the campaign began, and totalled by the BBC, were won by the Conservatives in 2019.

That includes a number with sizable notional majorities – Reading West and Mid Berkshire, Bassetlaw, Nuneaton, Thurrock and Monmouthshire.

Again, Labour is not necessarily expecting to win all of these. But again it is significant the leader is spending time campaigning in these areas during the campaign.

If Labour did win these seats, it would suggest a sizable majority on 4 July.

Map showing the constituencies Ed Davey has visited since the election was called - 33 are Conservative, one is Lib Dem and one is Labour

The Liberal Democrats are also targeting Conservative-held seats. They have been the almost-exclusive focus of Ed Davey since the election was called. From the 35 visits he has made, 33 – or a massive 94% – were to areas the Tories won at the last general election.

Again, many of those areas visited had sizable Conservative majorities in 2019. They include Chichester, North Norfolk, Eastleigh and South Devon.

We have not included Scotland or the SNP leader John Swinney in this data because the Scottish parties often run their own campaign visits. That makes it harder to compare the data on visits during the campaign.

We have also decided not to include Northern Ireland because it is dominated by its own political parties.

Additional reporting: Sarah Glatte, Sophie Van Brugen, Callum May, Nick Eardley.

BBC Verify logo
Presentational green line



Source link

Tags: analysisBBCcampaignConservativesdefensiveelectionfightingshows

Related Posts

What will Trump’s tax and spending bill do to US national debt?

July 5, 2025
0

US President Donald Trump's tax and spending bill has sparked intense debate. BBC Verify's policy and analysis correspondent Ben...

Did a JD Vance meme get a tourist banned from the US?

July 2, 2025
0

A Norwegian tourist says he was denied entry into the US after immigration agents took issue with a meme...

What has been driving the rise in disability benefit claims?

July 1, 2025
0

Ben Chu and Tom EdgingtonBBC VerifyGetty ImagesThe government has confirmed details of its scaled-back plan to reform health and...

  • Ballyjamesduff: Man dies after hit-and-run in County Cavan

    510 shares
    Share 204 Tweet 128
  • Somalia: Rare access to its US-funded 'lightning commando brigade

    508 shares
    Share 203 Tweet 127
  • Uganda arrest over deadly New Year Freedom City mall crush

    507 shares
    Share 203 Tweet 127
  • George Weah: Hopes for Liberian football revival with legend as President

    506 shares
    Share 202 Tweet 127
  • Google faces new multi-billion advertising lawsuit

    506 shares
    Share 202 Tweet 127
  • Trending
  • Comments
  • Latest

Ballyjamesduff: Man dies after hit-and-run in County Cavan

August 19, 2022

Somalia: Rare access to its US-funded 'lightning commando brigade

November 23, 2022

Uganda arrest over deadly New Year Freedom City mall crush

January 3, 2023

Stranger Things actor Jamie Campbell Bower praised for addiction post

0

NHS to close Tavistock child gender identity clinic

0

Cold sores traced back to kissing in Bronze Age by Cambridge research

0

More than 20 arrested at protest, Metropolitan Police say

July 5, 2025

US debt is now $37tn – should we be worried?

July 5, 2025

What will Trump’s tax and spending bill do to US national debt?

July 5, 2025

Categories

England

More than 20 arrested at protest, Metropolitan Police say

July 5, 2025
0

More than 20 people have been arrested in London after a protest in support of the banned group Palestine...

Read more

US debt is now $37tn – should we be worried?

July 5, 2025
News

Copyright © 2020 JBC News Powered by JOOJ.us

Explore the JBC

  • Home
  • News
  • Sport
  • Worklife
  • Travel
  • Reel
  • Future
  • More

Follow Us

  • Home Main
  • Video
  • World
  • Top News
  • Business
  • Sport
  • Tech
  • UK
  • In Pictures
  • Health
  • Reality Check
  • Science
  • Entertainment & Arts
  • Login

Copyright © 2020 JBC News Powered by JOOJ.us

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Create New Account!

Fill the forms bellow to register

All fields are required. Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
This website uses cookies. By continuing to use this website you are giving consent to cookies being used. Visit our Privacy and Cookie Policy.
News
More Sites

    MORE

  • Home
  • News
  • Sport
  • Worklife
  • Travel
  • Reel
  • Future
  • More
  • News

    JBC News