The Scottish government’s own decisions are to blame for “much of the pressure” facing the country’s finances, a watchdog has said.

The Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) – the official independent economic forecaster – warned the SNP government would need to make “difficult decisions” to balance its budget.

It also highlighted “significant uncertainty” about UK government funding for Holyrood.

Finance Secretary Shona Robison has introduced emergency curbs on spending describing them as “unavoidable”.

The Scottish government has said “painful choices” are required to fund public sector pay deals, while accusing the UK government of limiting its options by imposing austerity.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has warned that October’s UK Budget will also be “painful”, citing a a £22bn black hole in Treasury finances.

Ms Robison is due to set out in-year cuts in a statement to parliament next week. The Scottish government will announce more comprehensive spending plans for 2025-26 in its budget later this year.

As it released a report on the state of the country’s finances, the SFC said while decisions made by the UK government had contributed to pressure on the Scottish public purse, “much of the pressure comes from the Scottish government’s own decisions”.

It said a council tax freeze, more generous public sector pay deals than in other parts of the UK and social security reforms had all “added to the in-year pressures”.

SFC chairperson professor Graeme Roy said: “The past choices of the Scottish government narrow its room for manoeuvre now and in the future.”

He added: “With pay making up more than half of the Scottish government’s day-to-day budget, we need more transparency and planning around pay awards at budget time to avoid disruptive spending controls being introduced part way through the year.”

The commission said the government had budgeted for a 3% limit to pay increases, but that this would be exceeded by agreements being struck, with more negotiations under way.

On devolved welfare benefits, it said ministers have chosen to spend £900m more than the Treasury allocated in a block grant, and that is on course to reach £1.5bn within five years.

To help pay for public sector pay deals and avoid strikes, Ms Robison has ordered a halt to all non-essential spending, as well as a recruitment freeze for all but the most pressured jobs in the NHS.

Ahead of the announcement next week, some spending decisions have already been announced – including introducing means tested winter fuel payments, the return of peak rail fares, scrapping free bus travel for asylum seekers and delaying a digital devices programme.

Cash is also being diverted from nature restoration and flood defences and expanding a free school meals initiative.

The Scottish government recently provided extra funding to help Cosla offer a pay increase of at least 3.6% to local authority workers.

Pay deals for doctors, nurses and teachers are yet to be agreed.

Ms Robison has said pay increases were not be fully funded and would require cuts from other areas.

She said ministers have had to deal with “huge fiscal headwinds” in recent years due to the Covid pandemic, the cost of living crisis and soaring inflation.

“All of these things impact on devolved administrations and the only lever we have, in-year, are spending controls,” the minister added.

She defended the SNP administration’s record since 2007 and said the country’s finances were being run “efficiently”.