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Home UK Politics

Swinney sets out latest plan for an independence referendum

September 4, 2025
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Angus CochraneBBC Scotland News

PA Media John Swinney, who is bald and wearing glasses, speaks at a podium in front of a large saltire. He is wearing a dark suit, white shirt and purple tie, with his right hand in front of his body with his fingers fanned out. PA Media

John Swinney’s government has published a new independence paper

John Swinney has urged the UK government to agree to a referendum on Scottish independence if a majority of SNP MSPs are elected at next year’s Holyrood election.

At a speech in Edinburgh, the first minister encouraged Scots to “come together and demand a say over our future”.

It came as the Scottish government published the latest in a series of papers on the constitution.

The UK government has said independence is not a priority for Scots.

Swinney also accused Westminster politicians, including Sir Keir Starmer, of using “utterly chilling” language about immigrants.

And the SNP leader urged the prime minister to apologise for claiming that he had failed to welcome a £10bn shipbuilding deal that will secure thousands of jobs on the Clyde.

Several prime ministers, including Boris Johnson have argued that the 2014 independence referendum was a “once in a generation” event.

But Swinney said by 2030 there would be one million young Scots eligible to vote who were too young to vote in 2014, adding: “That seems like a generation to me.”

The first minister said that a precedent had been set in 2011, when a historic SNP majority in the Scottish Parliament paved the way for the 2014 independence referendum.

“We’ve had the alternative in 2016 and 2021, when there’s been an independence majority but it’s not been SNP MSPs,” he said.

Swinney signals 2030 as ‘next generation’ for indy vote

Those results did not lead to a second referendum, with successive UK governments refusing to sanction a second vote.

Swinney said: “I think what we have to do to break the logjam is to repeat what we achieved in 2011 and make sure the UK government has no answer to escaping from the precedent that was established in 2011.”

However, earlier Constitution Secretary Angus Robertson suggested that a majority of pro-independence MSPs from any party would also represent a mandate.

He told the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland that he was hoping for an SNP majority in May’s Holyrood election “because there is precedent there”.

He added: “But I’m a democrat. So if the parliament, by a majority, including the SNP and who knows, perhaps others too, votes that something should happen that is not a lesser mandate. That is not less democratic.”

Independence strategy

Shortly before Swinney’s speech, the government published its new independence paper.

More than a dozen of the documents have been published since the series was launched by Nicola Sturgeon in 2022.

Political opponents have described them as a waste of time and money, while some within the SNP have argued for a more radical approach to securing independence.

The new paper, called Your Right To Decide, said that the 2011 election result had showed “that it is for the people of Scotland to decide when a referendum is to be held, and that when they do it is for the governments of Scotland and the United Kingdom to take the steps required to facilitate that”.

The Scottish government called on Downing Street to “accept and re-state that the UK government would not seek to prevent a clear majority of people in any part of the UK deciding to leave it through a fair and democratic process”.

The SNP is due to agree on its independence strategy at a party conference next month.

In 2022, Supreme Court judges ruled that the Scottish government cannot hold an independence referendum without the UK government’s consent.

In recent years support for independence has hovered at about 50% in the polls, while support for the SNP has declined from peaks under Nicola Sturgeon’s leadership.

Getty Images A line of police stand in front of protesters, who are behind metal barriersGetty Images

Saltires have been on display at recent anti-immigration protests

At the event in Edinburgh, Swinney accused Sir Keir of “toadying along” behind Reform UK leader Nigel Farage as he criticised “utterly chilling” language used about immigration.

He cited reports of calls for “mass deportations” after Farage said Reform would be prepared to deport 600,000 migrants if it won power at the next election. Farage said his party’s “credible plan” could help stop illegal immigration.

Swinney described as “dreadful” Reform’s proposal to take the UK out of the European Convention on Human Rights, a treaty designed to protect human rights and political freedoms,

In his speech, the first minister said: “I’m ringing the alarm bell for our values, for our common humanity, for our commitment to the oppressed and for those seeking sanctuary.

“Friends, let us join with others in saying unequivocally: Our saltire is a flag of welcome – and refugees are welcome here.”

The comments came after saltires were used at anti-immigration protests outside hotels used to house people in the asylum system, mimicking displays of St George’s flags and union flags on England’s streets.

Flags have since been put up in some streets in Glasgow, while councils in the north east of Scotland have said they will remove saltires which have been tied to street lights without permission after dozens appeared in recent weeks.

Aberdeenshire Council said it had to suspend the removal of flags after workers faced threats and intimidation.

PA Media John Swinney, who is bald with glasses and Sir Keir Starmer, grey-haired with glasses, walk through open pane glass doors. Swinney is on the left and Starmer is on the right. Swinney, with his head slightly bowed, is speaking. Both are wearing black suits and white shirts. Swinney is wearing a purple tie, Sir Keir a green tie. PA Media

First Minister John Swinney criticised Prime Minister Keir Starmer as he visited Scotland

Swinney also took aim at Sir Keir – who is visiting Scotland this week – over comments he made at Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday.

The UK government announced over the weekend that it had agreed a £10bn deal to supply the Norwegian navy with at least five new warships.

The vessels are to be built at BAE Systems’ Glasgow shipyards, supporting more than 2,000 jobs at the yard, ministers said.

On Wednesday, Sir Keir claimed Swinney had said “absolutely nothing” about the announcement.

He told MPs that he was “perplexed that the first minister has not welcomed it”, adding: “I would have expected the first minister to be holding a press conference to celebrate what we’ve done.”

However, Swinney had already welcomed the deal in comments to the media.

Answering a question from BBC Scotland News after his speech, the first minister said that Sir Keir should apologise.

“Politicians should be accurate in what they say and the prime minister was completely inaccurate in what he said in attacking me in the House of Commons yesterday,” he said.

“And if he wants a respectable relationship with the Scottish government he should go to the House of Commons and apologise for what he said.”

‘Out of touch’

Responding to the independence paper, a UK government spokesperson said: “This is simply not a priority for Scots. The UK government’s priority is delivering for people in Scotland.

“The Scottish government should be focused on working with us on our plan for change: to grow the economy, improve our public services, and put more money in people’s pockets – that is what Scots want to see.”

At First Minister’s Questions, Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay urged Swinney to “get back to the day job”.

He said: “We know his game, he knows exactly what he is up to, he’s desperately trying to get the focus off the SNP’s dismal record of failure on the economy.”

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar told MSPs that fixing the NHS should be Swinney’s priority.

He added: “Instead he’s trying to use independence to hide from his failures and desperately trying to cling on to power and it’s not going to work.”

Reform councillor Thomas Kerr accused the first minister of being “arrogantly out-of-touch”.

He said: “The country is at breaking point, yet has-been Swinney would rather grandstand than put his own people first.”



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