New German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is making a high-stakes trip to meet US President Donald Trump – his first time in Washington DC as the leader of the European Union’s largest economy.

Tariffs, defence spending and the war in Ukraine will be high on the agenda when Merz meets Donald Trump on Thursday at the White House.

There’s also speculation that Trump’s team – which repeatedly has weighed in on Germany’s domestic politics – could subject him to an Oval Office “ambush”.

It would not be the first time.

Both South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky found themselves in awkward, tense or even fiery exchanges as the world’s cameras rolled, capturing every moment. Those moments have turned once cosy, diplomatic moments in the Oval Office into potentially fraught, tight-rope walks for visiting leaders.

Ahead of the visit, Berlin expressed confidence that the German side is ready. “I think he’s well prepared for this meeting,” Friedrich Merz’s spokesman told reporters this week.

Merz – from the centre-right CDU party – is not just prepared, but on friendly terms with the US President, according to German media.

The pair are even said to have exchanged text messages and be on a first name basis, Germany’s ARD news outlet has reported.

It’s always important to not talk for too long,” Merz recently opined on German TV. “But to keep it short and also let him talk.”

Merz’s forthright, “shoot-from-the-hip” style of politics could add an interesting dimension to the meeting. His remarks can be surprising and make headlines – a stark contrast to those of his more cautious predecessors, Olaf Scholz and Angela Merkel.

Though a traditional supporter of transatlantic relations, Merz raised eyebrows in February by declaring the current US administration is “indifferent to the fate of Europe”.

So far, the White House has been uncharacteristically quiet about Merz’s visit.

It was only briefly mentioned by Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt in a gaggle with reporters on Monday, and not at all during briefings at the White House and State Department on Tuesday.

Sources familiar with the visit suggested several topics that could dominate the conversation.

Of these, tariffs would be among the most pressing, particularly after Trump doubled import taxes on steel and aluminium this week, prompting warnings of EU countermeasures.

The US President also repeatedly expressed dismay with the speed of tariff negotiations with the EU. In May, he threatened to levy a 50% tariff on European goods, saying that it was “time that we play the game the way I know how to play the game”.

Trump later backtracked and delayed the tariffs until 9 July, a move that his US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer characterised as having a “fire lit” under the EU.

Germany is the EU’s largest exporter to the US, leaving the country’s businesses extremely agitated about any trade obstacles.

Merz, a 69-year-old reputed millionaire with a corporate background, may feel confident about going toe-to-toe with Trump, who often hails himself as the consummate “dealmaker”.

Whether the Chancellor will be able to smooth the path for EU negotiators, however, remains to be seen.

Constanze Stelzenmüller, an expert on German-US relations at the Brookings Institution, believes Merz’s ability to push the negotiations along is limited, given that the EU as an institution has taken the lead on those talks.

“Whatever Merz says is mood music, rather than being able to say that XYZ will happen, even if major nation states aren’t without influence on the European Commission,” she explained. “He has to tread a delicate line.”

When it comes to Ukraine, Merz is vocal in his support of Kyiv and in his criticism of Moscow – recently warning that the fighting could drag on, despite repeated talk of a ceasefire from the White House.

Justin Logan, director of defence and foreign policy studies at the Washington DC-based Cato Institute, told the BBC he believes Ukraine will present a “dilemma” for the German side in the meeting.

“They’ll make a real effort to sell what frankly are the same arguments that have so far failed to persuade the White House,” he said.

Merz also has called for stiffer EU sanctions on Vladimir Putin and Russia – something Trump has so far not committed to, even as some lawmakers from within his own party have escalated calls to do so.

Earlier this week, Leavitt said only that Trump has “kept this as a tool in his toolbox if necessary”.

“The strange thing for me is, that we haven’t heard President Trump say yet, is that Europe has lots of cards it can play on its own,” Mr Logan said, pointing to $228bn in frozen Russian assets held primarily in Belgium.

“That’s money that’s just sitting there,” he said.

From the White House’s point of view, the issue of Ukraine’s defence is also inextricably linked to Trump’s demands that NATO allies raise defence spending to 5% of their GDP.

Germany’s is 2% – well short of Trump’s target, although German officials have signalled a willingness to move in that direction.

“I don’t think they’ve done enough,” Mr Logan added. “And I suspect they can’t do enough. The White House has to know that 5% is not a goal that any of the major European countries are going to reach.”

“The question then becomes: What’s next?”

Among the potential pitfalls the German delegation faces are the deep disdain that some members of Trump’s cabinet – particularly Vice President JD Vance – have for the so-called “firewall” that keeps Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party out of power.

“If you’re running in fear of your own voters, there is nothing America can do for you,” Vance told the Munich Security Conference in February, as he rebuked Europe on issues such as free speech and immigration.

It was at Munich that he also met with the AfD’s leader, Alice Weidel, ahead of Germany’s snap election that saw the party storm into second place.

Since then, AfD has been classified as extremist by Germany’s domestic intelligence service – although the public designation was paused pending a legal challenge.

If confronted, Merz is unlikely to concede, having previously called on the US government to “stay out” of Berlin’s domestic politics.

While she believes a “Zelensky-style” Oval Office is unlikely, Stelzenmüller said a “worst case scenario” would be something more akin to the visit of Irish Prime Minister Micheál to the White House – an occasion promptly followed by a visit from his political foe, former UFC fighter Conor McGregor.

Subsequent contact with the AfD or Alice Weidel, she added, would be seen as a provocation by Germany.

“That would be DEFCON 1 for the bilateral,” she said.