{"id":37940,"date":"2024-07-05T08:59:05","date_gmt":"2024-07-05T08:59:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kede.com.br\/news\/how-record-breaking-hurricane-beryl-is-a-sign-of-a-warming-world\/"},"modified":"2024-07-05T08:59:06","modified_gmt":"2024-07-05T08:59:06","slug":"how-record-breaking-hurricane-beryl-is-a-sign-of-a-warming-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kede.com.br\/news\/how-record-breaking-hurricane-beryl-is-a-sign-of-a-warming-world\/","title":{"rendered":"How record-breaking Hurricane Beryl is a sign of a warming world"},"content":{"rendered":"


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By\u00a0Mark Poynting,\u00a0<\/span>Climate reporter<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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\"ReutersReuters<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Hurricane Beryl devastated St. Vincent and the Grenadines<\/figcaption><\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
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Hurricane Beryl is wreaking havoc in parts of the Caribbean \u2013 and putting the role of climate change under the spotlight.<\/p>\n

With maximum sustained wind speeds of more than 160mph (257km\/h), it became the earliest category five Atlantic hurricane in records going back around 100 years.<\/p>\n

In fact, there has only been one previous recorded case of a category five Atlantic hurricane in July \u2013 Hurricane Emily, on 16 July 2005.<\/p>\n

The causes of individual storms are complex, making it difficult to fully attribute specific cases to climate change.<\/p>\n

But exceptionally high sea surface temperatures are seen as a key reason why Hurricane Beryl has been so powerful. <\/p>\n

Usually, such strong storms only develop later in the season, after the seas have heated up through the summer.<\/p>\n

Hurricanes generally need the sea surface to be at least 27C in order to have a chance of developing. As the map below shows, waters along Hurricane Beryl\u2019s path have been much warmer than this.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\"Map<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n
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All else being equal, warmer seas mean more powerful hurricanes, because the storms can pick up more energy, enabling higher wind speeds.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe know that as we warm the planet, we\u2019re warming our sea surface temperatures as well,\u201d explains Andra Garner, an assistant professor at Rowan University in the US.<\/p>\n

“And we know that those warm ocean waters are a critical fuel source for hurricanes.”<\/p>\n

In the main Atlantic hurricane development region, the ocean heat content \u2013 the energy stored throughout the water column – is at levels not usually seen until September.<\/p>\n

That is when the Atlantic hurricane season is usually at its most active, as the sea surface is typically at its warmest at the end of summer.<\/p>\n

This is illustrated by the chart below, where a dot represents a major hurricane between 1940 and 2024. As you can see, most major hurricanes happen in late August and September, and earlier ones are very rare.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\"Chart<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n
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While a category five hurricane is unheard of this early in the season, its strength fits into the broader picture of how these storms are changing in a warming world<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The number of hurricanes has not been increasing, but a higher proportion of them are expected to reach the highest categories globally as temperatures rise.<\/p>\n

\u201cAlthough it is uncertain to what extent climate change contributed to the early formation of Hurricane Beryl, our climate models suggest that the mean intensity of hurricanes will increase in the future due to enhanced global warming,\u201d explains Hiroyuki Murakami, research scientist at Noaa\u2019s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.<\/p>\n

Another factor to consider this year is regional weather patterns.<\/p>\n

In the eastern Pacific, El Ni\u00f1o conditions have recently come to an end<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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El Ni\u00f1o inhibits the formation of strong hurricanes in the Atlantic, because of the way it affects winds in the atmosphere. The opposite phase, known as La Ni\u00f1a, favours Atlantic hurricane development.<\/p>\n

Currently, there are \u201cneutral\u201d conditions \u2013 neither El Ni\u00f1o nor La Nina. But La Ni\u00f1a conditions are expected later this year.<\/p>\n

This likely transition \u2013 as well as rising sea temperatures through July and August \u2013 has led to concerns that even more powerful hurricanes could form later in the season.<\/p>\n

\u201cHurricane Beryl sets a precedent for what we fear is going to be a very, very active, very dangerous hurricane season, which will impact the entire Atlantic basin,\u201d says Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization.<\/p>\n

In May, the US weather agency Noaa warned an \u201cextraordinary\u201d Atlantic hurricane season could be in store<\/a>, forecasting between four and seven major hurricanes \u2013 category three (111mph) or above – between June and November. On average, the Atlantic is hit by three major hurricanes a year. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Watch: Union Island resident explains impact of Hurricane Beryl<\/figcaption><\/p>\n

Rapid intensification<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
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Meteorologists and climate scientists have also remarked about how quickly Hurricane Beryl strengthened.<\/p>\n

It took just 42 hours to go from a tropical depression \u2013 with maximum sustained wind speeds of 38mph or less – to a major hurricane (meaning above 111mph).<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat makes Beryl particularly notable is that it […] intensified the fastest from a tropical depression to a hurricane [of any Atlantic hurricane in June or early July],\u201d explains Shuyi Chen, professor of atmospheric science at the University of Washington.<\/p>\n

Hurricane Beryl is an example of \u201crapid intensification\u201d – where maximum wind speeds increase very quickly. It can be especially dangerous, because communities have less time to prepare.<\/p>\n

The frequency and magnitude of these rapid intensification events in the Atlantic appears to have increased in recent decades<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cUnprecedented as Beryl is, it actually very much aligns with the kinds of extremes we expect in a warmer climate,\u201d Dr Garner says.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs we\u2019re warming the planet, we\u2019re essentially \u201cstacking the deck\u201d of extreme events against ourselves, making events like Hurricane Beryl not only possible, but more likely.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s up to us to reduce our emissions to change that story.\u201d<\/p>\n

Graphics by Erwan Rivault<\/i><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n


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20 hours ago By\u00a0Mark Poynting,\u00a0Climate reporter Reuters Hurricane Beryl devastated St. Vincent and the Grenadines Hurricane Beryl is wreaking havoc in parts of the Caribbean \u2013 and putting the role of climate change under the spotlight. With maximum sustained wind speeds of more than 160mph (257km\/h), it became the earliest category five Atlantic hurricane in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":37941,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[63],"tags":[13745,4196,6865,1635,3455,510],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kede.com.br\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37940"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kede.com.br\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kede.com.br\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kede.com.br\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kede.com.br\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37940"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kede.com.br\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37940\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37942,"href":"https:\/\/kede.com.br\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37940\/revisions\/37942"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kede.com.br\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37941"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kede.com.br\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37940"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kede.com.br\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37940"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kede.com.br\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37940"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}