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Job vacancies are falling and the economy is “cooling”, suggesting recession may be “around the corner”, according to the boss of Reed, one of the UK’s largest recruitment firms.<\/p>\n
Speaking to the BBC, James Reed said his firm had noticed a sharp fall in the number of jobs being advertised and urged the government to rethink the recent increase in the tax employers pay on staff wages.<\/p>\n
“We’re like the crow’s nest on a ship,” he said. “We get the vacancies coming into our website early, so we see what’s happening in the labour market.”<\/p>\n
The government said it had faced “difficult decisions” but that official forecasts suggested employment would rise over the next three years.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Vacancies advertised on Reed’s website had fallen 13% between October and November, Mr Reed told the Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme.<\/p>\n
The vacancy figure was now 26% lower than a year ago, he said, a “significant decline”.<\/p>\n
“That worries me because when I’ve seen that in the past, it’s been an indication that recession is around the corner,” he said.<\/p>\n
Economists describe the economy as in recession if it shrinks for two three-month periods, or quarters, in a row.<\/p>\n
The UK economy grew in the first part of this year, but shrank in September and October, according to the latest growth figures<\/a>. Restaurants, pubs and retail – sectors which rely on lower-waged staff – reported weaker months, officials statistics showed.<\/p>\n On Tuesday the latest official jobs figures will show whether a recent increase in the UK’s unemployment rate has continued into October. <\/p>\n While still moderate by historical standards, unemployment ticked up to 4.3% in September, compared to 4% in the period March to May.<\/p>\n