BBC Scotland Political Editor<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n The Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election is a surprise win for Labour – giving the party a much-needed boost with less than a year until a full Scottish Parliament vote.<\/p>\n But the other big winner was Reform UK who finished third behind the SNP. They recorded their best ever parliamentary election result in Scotland – with a 26% share of the vote.<\/p>\n The party’s deputy leader Richard Tice said the result was a “massive boost” going into the May 2026 vote.<\/p>\n If John Swinney is to remain as Scotland’s first minister, it seems he cannot rely on presenting the SNP as the only alternative to Nigel Farage and Reform UK.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Both the SNP and Labour lost vote share in this by-election but the punishment for the SNP, in power at Holyrood for the last 18 years, was far greater.<\/p>\n They repeatedly framed this contest as a two horse race between them and Reform UK. Their billboards in the constituency still make that claim. It was obviously wrong.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n In reality, this was a three horse race that Labour won by a nose to take the seat from the SNP – which now has big questions to ask itself about its strategy for 2026.<\/p>\n If Reform can do half as well in the contest next May, they can expect to have their first MSPs elected and gain a significant foothold at Holyrood.<\/p>\n That would break the traditional consensus that Scotland needs more immigration to fill job vacancies and offset the effects of an ageing population.<\/p>\n The established parties acknowledge that concerns about immigration featured in this by-election in a way they have not before.<\/p>\n The biggest losers in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse are the Conservatives who finished a distant fourth and appear to be struggling to counter the rise of Reform.<\/p>\n Defeat here is a significant setback for the Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay and offers no encouragement to Kemi Badenoch and the UK party.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n This is also not a victory that Sir Keir Starmer can really claim as his own. <\/p>\n Labour said in recent days that they had identified enough support to beat the SNP and it seems a successful ground operation got those voters to turnout.<\/p>\n But Starmer’s popularity in Scotland has plummeted since he swept to power last summer, heavily defeating the SNP.<\/p>\n Decisions like cutting winter fuel payments for pensioners seem to have harmed his standing and that policy is to be revised, perhaps as early as next week.<\/p>\n The prime minister made no appearance in the campaign despite announcing the strategic defence review in Glasgow on Monday.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has acknowledged public discontent with the UK Labour government.<\/p>\n He said that voters had made clear their frustrations and that Sir Keir Starmer must now go further and faster in delivering the economic change he promised at the general election.<\/p>\n This by-election outcome alters the prevailing narrative in Scottish politics.<\/p>\n After defeating the SNP across much of the central belt of Scotland last summer, Labour has lost ground.<\/p>\n National opinion polling has them heavily trailing the SNP in Holyrood voting intentions. <\/p>\n This by-election result runs counter to that trend, albeit that it is a localised win on a low turnout.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Voters consistently told anyone who would listen that they were fed up with politicians of all stripes, not least those in power at Holyrood and Westminster.<\/p>\n Before next May’s election, John Swinney hopes to be able to demonstrate improvements in public services like the NHS. <\/p>\n And labour will argue the nationalists have already had too long and that a change of government is required.<\/p>\n This by-election has restored some confidence in Scottish Labour and reminded the SNP that they can take nothing for granted. <\/p>\n But it has put all parties on notice that Reform UK could – for the first time – be a significant force in Scottish politics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n![\"PA](\"https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/480\/cpsprodpb\/5120\/live\/ab745400-42ca-11f0-93dd-9f3a34381ccc.png.webp\")
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