South Africa (best possible finish: 69.44%)

South Africa, the leaders in the standings, only had to win one of their two Tests against Pakistan to secure their place.

Having won the first of those matches, their place is now secure.

Australia (best possible finish: 67.54%)

Australia’s points percentage has dropped slightly following the draw in the third Test against India in Brisbane, but they remain in second place.

The series is level at 1-1 and a 3-1 win would guarantee a place in the final.

A 2-2 draw would mean they need to win one Test in Sri Lanka in the new year.

India (best possible finish: 60.53%)

India remain in third place but the Brisbane draw does not change their requirements too much.

They still need a 3-1 win against Australia to secure a place in the final.

A 2-2 draw would mean they need Sri Lanka to win the series against Australia.

Sri Lanka (best possible finish: 53.85%)

Sri Lanka only have a slim chance of contesting the final. They need to beat Australia 2-0 and hope a lot of other results go their way.

We are instead likely to see a two-horse race for one spot.

New Zealand, England, Pakistan, Bangladesh and West Indies are no longer in contention to reach the final.

But it is worth noting that it could all change again if sides are deducted points for a slow over-rate, as five teams have in this cycle, including England and Australia during the 2023 Ashes.