“Seismic”, “a socio-political earthquake”, “a watershed moment for Germany”.
This was how political analysts and many media outlets described the stunning victory of the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in local elections in Germany on Sunday. Is that an exaggeration?
Saxony-Anhalt is one of the smallest of massive Germany’s 16 regions. It boasts a mere 1.7m out of 59m eligible voters nationwide. How significant can its political sentiments be, especially since the AfD narrowly failed to win an outright majority?
The answer: very significant.
First and foremost, at home in Germany.
The vote may have been regional but it impacts at national level. The AfD landslide piles even more pressure on the already beleaguered centrist coalition government in Berlin. It may prove to be the nail in the political coffin of Germany’s deeply unpopular conservative Chancellor, Friedrich Merz. He had promised to slash the AfD’s popularity.
These political woes will further weaken and distract Germany, the EU’s most powerful player, at a time of continental crisis – as Europe struggles to contain Russian aggression, Donald Trump’s tariff tantrums and the economic threat from China.
The Saxony-Anhalt result also provokes soul-searching throughout Germany, where the Nazi past still looms large. This is the first outstanding electoral landslide for a hard right nationalist party since the fall of the Third Reich in 1945.
The German authorities have labelled the AfD, in part, anti-democratic and a number of regional factions of the party, including Saxony-Anhalt, far right extremist.
The AfD is well known to be particularly popular in east Germany but it’s now also polling as the biggest political party nationwide.
Germany’s political mainstream has failed voters, it would seem. What does Europe’s biggest single economy, its most populous nation not counting Russia, do now?
Tiny Saxony-Anhalt is causing waves outside Germany too.
None other than the President of the United States swiftly posted the Saxony-Anhalt exit poll on his Truth Social platform on Sunday.
The AfD’s anti-immigration, anti-woke, “Germany for Germans” message chimes closely with Donald Trump’s MAGA missive. Along with a number of other nationalist parties in Europe, the AfD borrows heavily from the Trump playbook – undermining mainstream media, questioning the neutrality of judges and promising to “make Germany great again”.
Interesting to note though – the US president is rarely name-checked on the campaign trail in Europe. Politicians are keenly aware just how unpopular he is amongst voters.
Hot on Donald Trump’s social media heels on Sunday night was the influential Russian businessman Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund. He declared the AfD result “historic”, Germany’s national government “discredited” and the German Chancellor “humiliated”, comparing Friedrich Merz to the UK’s not-long-gone prime minister, Keir Starmer, who felt forced to resign this summer.
What interest might Russia have in German regional elections, you might ask, and what was Dmitriev’s dig at the UK all about?
The German government is the largest single donor to Ukraine and the UK is known to have provided Kyiv with missiles used to strike inside Russian territory. This has deeply angered Moscow.
The AfD, by comparison, is pretty pro-Russia. It wants to stop sending military aid to Ukraine, halt sanctions against Moscow and start buying much cheaper Russian energy again. Energy-hungry German industry suffered a huge economic blow after the country halted Russian energy imports, following the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The AfD’s softly-softly approach to Russia has another appeal in Germany’s east, which remains far poorer than the west. This, despite Germany spending between 2.3 and 3 trillion euros (depending on reports and whether inflation is taken into account) to help integrate the former communist part of the country after the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall.
Saxony-Anhalt is Germany’s poorest region and there, as in much of east Germany, you often encounter what’s known as “Ostalgie” amongst voters; essentially “nostalgia in the east” for comparatively more stable times under communism.
Also watching the Saxony-Anhalt election closely was the European Union. The next 12 months is bumper election season across the EU. Ballots are expected in key nations France, Italy, Spain and Poland. Brussels fears more “extreme” parties, left but particularly right of the political spectrum, may benefit across the board.
The leader of Spain’s nationalist Vox party, Santiago Abascal, posted on X on Sunday that the AfD victory in Saxony-Anhalt was ” a great hope for Germany and for Europe”.
By contrast, France’s Europe Minister, Benjamin Haddad, an ally of centrist President Emmanuel Macron, warned “this is a serious moment in Europe, seeing the far right win in a regional election in Germany”.
Neither the AfD, nor other European parties labelled “extreme right” or “hard right”, accept the label. They also differ from one another in tone and party programme. France’s National Rally under Marine Le Pen kicked the AfD out of its grouping in the European Parliament two years ago, for being too “radical”. What the parties do tend to share, however, is an anti-immigration platform and strong nationalist messaging. And that really worries the EU.
Whether it’s a rallying cry for “Germany First” or “Italy First” or “France for the French!”, the concern in Brussels is that the rise of nationalist parties strains European cohesion at a time when outside events demand it more than ever.
Nationalist parties like the AfD or Italy’s League Party tend to be deeply Eurosceptic, but Brussels says Europe needs to stand united to counter Donald Trump’s bullying, for example, or to effectively protect European business against China’s goods dumping.
Europe’s defence establishment also warns that fractures in European sanctions against Russia or countries going tepid on Nato membership (as you see in Marine Le Pen’s National Rally for example, or Germany’s AfD) just emboldens Moscow.
Security chiefs say nations must stick together to stop Russia in Ukraine, otherwise the Kremlin will be tempted to attack inside Nato, such as the Baltic states.
The thing is, Europe’s voters are very aware of these outside threats and the impact they have at home. They worry about the impact of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, about crumbling health services at home and dwindling economic security for themselves and their family. Uncontrolled immigration and safety on the streets are huge concerns too.
And this is where the significance of the Saxony-Anhalt vote shines bright. A flashing red warning to traditional political parties, but also to institutions across Europe like the judiciary and security services. Those the AfD dismisses as the self-interested “Establishment”.
Voters on this continent feel lost and let down by parties they’ve supported over and again for decades. Looking right or left now at election time does not mean they’ve all suddenly become extremist.
The AfD campaign slogan in Saxony-Anhalt was an upbeat “Anything is Possible!” Plus a promise to make Germans feel proud of their country again. Till now untried and untested in government, people seem increasingly willing to give them a go.
