Scotland’s justice secretary Angela Constance is expected to face a vote of no confidence later on Tuesday.

Opposition parties have accused her of misrepresenting the position of a leading expert on grooming gangs, Prof Alexis Jay, and misleading parliament.

The issue came to a head rather spectacularly last Thursday, when both the Conservatives and Labour used First Minister’s Questions to attack Constance and urged the First Minister to sack her.

Such calls were resisted by John Swinney, who insisted Prof Jay’s views have been clarified.

But his attempts to move the agenda onto discussing the substance of the issue of chid sexual exploitation fell flat.

Swinney’s opponents argued that Constance is no longer trusted by survivors of grooming gangs, pointing to a statement issued by one alleged victim, known as Taylor, who described her position as “untenable”.

The controversy began in September, when Constance opposed a Conservative amendment to a victims bill calling for an inquiry into grooming gangs.

The justice secretary told MSPs that Prof Jay “did not support further inquiries” into child sexual abuse and exploitation.

However, emails released by the government show Prof Jay clarified in September that she made that comment “in the context of the England and Wales Public Inquiry on Child Sexual Abuse, which I chaired”.

She added: “It had nothing to do with [the Conservative] amendment, or the position in Scotland, as could be interpreted from your statement.”

The academic said Scottish ministers should collect “reliable data” about the problem and requested that her position be clarified.

The government issued a clarification in meeting notes last month but not in the Holyrood chamber.

Constance has described her comments about the academic as “accurate” – but opponents claim she is in breach of the ministerial code for failing to correct the record.

A Conservative motion of no confidence already has more than the required 25 signatures to be scheduled for debate.

It’s usually unwise for the government’s opponents to push for such a vote without knowing they can win it – or at least be in with a decent chance.

Scottish Labour, who have also tabled a separate motion of no confidence, reasoned that they would have several days to convince the likes of the Greens and Liberal Democrats to come onboard.

By the end of the day on Thursday, the Lib Dems had been persuaded to join Labour and the Tories. But the Greens confirmed they would vote with the government.

Their position remains unchanged, despite a letter from Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar to the party’s co-leaders on Monday arguing that backing Constance “would be sending a clear signal that lying is tolerated in the highest ranks of government and abiding by the Ministerial Code is now optional”.

The Greens view? While they believe Constance could and should have handled things better, they see this row as a distraction from tackling the core issue at hand – the sexual exploitation of children.

They’re also uneasy about what they see as the politicisation of such a sensitive and serious issue.

But Labour and the Tories’ reason is precisely that – which adds weight to their calls for Constance to go.

Sarwar says she misled parliament on “perhaps one of the most serious issues in her brief”, while Tory deputy leader Rachael Hamilton claims “her actions mean she has lost the trust of victims – and that alone is reason for her to go”.

Senior government sources reject the view that Constance has breached the ministerial code, claiming opponents are cynically point scoring ahead of next year’s election.

She has the backing of the first minister, and has been publicly supported by cabinet colleagues.

While she is expected to survive the no confidence vote, it’ll still mean a highly uncomfortable afternoon in the chamber.

Her broader handling of the issue of grooming gangs is also going to come under fierce scrutiny this week.

The row comes against the backdrop of ministers resisting calls for a public inquiry.

They’ve argued the current evidence doesn’t support one.

But alongside her call for clarification, emails from Prof Jay show it’s clear she believes urgent work is needed in this area.

She’s agreed to oversee a national review of grooming gangs in Scotland, and will be questioned by Holyrood’s education committee on Wednesday.

The committee convener Conservative MSP Douglas Ross has been criticised by SNP members over the timing of the invitation, accusing of him of abusing his position for his own political motives.

He says victims need answers as quickly as possible.

The meeting will provide the opposition with the chance to ask Prof Jay about the justice secretary’s representation of her views, but also and perhaps more importantly, about the extent of child abuse and exploitation in Scotland.

Constance herself will also appear before the committee. It’s an opportunity to quiz her directly, and quite how hard a time she receives will depend greatly on what Prof Jay tells MSPs.

Also on Wednesday, the Education Secretary Jenny Gilruth will make a statement setting out further steps the government is taking on tackling child abuse.

Ministers will hope that, by the time MSPs return in the new year, the focus will have moved away from the justice secretary’s future.

But opposition parties may have other ideas.